Publishing sucks. I’m sorry if I’m the first one telling you this, but it does. Everything about it is like gambling.
Trying to go the traditional route, with long form queries going out to agents or short form stories going out to editors, is like playing the slots. You need to line up agent/editor taste, their observations of market trends, and, honestly, their moods. If they line up, great! You win!
Self-publishing is marginally better. It’s a lot more work, but you get guaranteed publication. What you’re gambling on here is whether anyone will pick it up. This is like craps. I don’t actually know how to play craps, but it feels apt. You put all the work into learning the game, but your success is still determined by a roll of the dice. Maybe the right person will share it on their social media; maybe you’ll get a handful of good reviews quickly enough to beat the algorithm.
The point is, big dreams are great, and yeah, there’s a chance you’ll achieve them. If there weren’t, none of us would be doing this, but you gotta love the work, too. The writing itself has to fulfill something within you. The writing itself has to sustain you, be worthwhile all on its own.
Yes, we all want eyes on our words. That’s why we write them, but just writing them needs to be enough if readers prove illusive.
I’m not saying you shouldn’t be disappointed if it doesn’t work out. Denying your disappointment will cause more emotional damage in the long run. Rejection hurts, even if you do happen to know the odds.
I’m just saying that you need to be able to breathe through the disappointment, hug your manuscript a little tighter, and either keep writing or move on. You need to be able to take pride in the accomplishment of bringing a manuscript to completion, to be proud of the courage it takes to send it out in the world at all, and you need to be believe that there’s a place for it. It isn’t your fault the stars didn’t align.
Build up your community. Surround yourself with people who understand what it feels like to get your 10th rejection. Your 100th rejection. Who will remind you of what you’ve accomplished, and support you whether you brush yourself off to try again or wash the dust from you feet and move on.
For those that do want the odds, best I’ve found:
1/1000 short stories submitted to publications are accepted.
80% of people feel they have a book worth writing knocking around their heads
less than 20% of those ever attempt to put it down
only 3% (still of that 80%) actually finish the book
30% of those who finish a book (less than 1% of the those who started a book) ever publish it
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